THE END OF MEMORY 8: PEAK SALES PROCESSORS
Texto con licencia CC-BY-NC escrito por Felix Moreno salvo que se indique otra cosa. Esto significa que pudes copiar, corregir, traducir y publicar en tu web si lo deseas siempre que enlaces al original y mantengas la misma licencia. Me gustaria traducir cada uno de estos relatos a cualquier idioma que alguien hable, japones, inglés, catalan, vasco, gallego, asturleones, aragonés, frances, guarani... me gustaría publicar en papel en otros idiomas y llegar a gente sin internet. ¿me ayudas?
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Well, the time has come to do a little more thorough analysis of the future of processors. In my articles I have already talked about the future of hard drives, mobile phones, cars, and above all I have come to explain in several of my articles that the future of computing and processors is complicated. But when I have told it, it was like the one who talks about the apocalypse on a pedestal in a Roman market, a kind of preacher. Still with what is falling and with all the data on the future of energy, people do not lose hope in computing and having computers. For all this and since I already analyzed the peak of hard drives that was in 2010, or the peak of mobile phones that was in 2017, we are going to talk about processors, its peak, PEAK COMPUTING, PEAK SALES PROCESSORS,and put data where I put my opinions, to see if so at least refute, they will not be able to refute me, another thing is that you look the other way when you know what there is, let's start.
I have already mentioned in my articles and in my PEAK MEMORY and CHIP WARS books that the number of companies that make next generation processors is 2. TSMC in Taiwan and SAMSUNG in South Korea. This should already give clues about how complicated it is, and that there is not so much market that there are more manufacturers in the world, but it seems that it is not enough, we want more data, more chichi, well nothing, we are going for them, one Once again, I have to dive into reports from companies dedicated to being optimistic so that owners of stocks and companies and future investors continue to invest in this market. It's always the same, it doesn't matter if sales go up or down, the reports always predict a brutal and exponential growth for the next few years, it happened with the sales of hard drives,It happens with mobile sales and it happens with the analysis of the future of processors, but let's get to the topic.
Source: Ic Insights February 2021.
In this graph of the total number of processors sold in the world we begin to glimpse what is happening. To begin with, we can see that the number of processors that are manufactured per year in the world, basically in 2 or 3 companies, is between 2,000,000,000 and 2,400,000,000 units per year. 445,000,000 correspond to personal computers, the rest mobile phones, servers and embedded systems.
Another interesting graph is to know what type of processors are the most sold, in the graph below it can be clearly seen that half of the market for processors are servers and PCs, 26% are processors for mobile phones and 21% for cpus and embedded systems. The x86 technology continues to dominate, but I think this is going to change in the coming years and the ARM CPUs of the mobiles will be monopolizing everything. On the type of CPUs you have my article CHIP WARS 2: ARM, PROCESSORS AND INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY , also published in my books.
Source: EET India, Ic Insights.
Another interesting thing that cannot be seen well in the first graph is that in 2018 we reached the peak of production of 2,248M units, and in 2019 we already started to decrease with sales of 2,146M units, sales fell 2.1% being the first time that processor sales fell since the crash of 2008. However, it can be seen that in 2020 sales increased a little (1.2%) to 2,175M units, but it is not at all higher than 2018 which were 2,248M . this because? Well the answer is simple, we had already reached the manufacturing peak, PEAK SALES in 2018 but with the coronavirus, the market for laptops and tablets to be able to telework saved the sector that seemed doomed to begin its decline as in the rest of the sectors that I have already analyzed in other articles.
However, to everyone you ask, they are going to tell you that income has increased, that companies are making more and more money, and that can also be seen in the graph where we have gone from income of $ 80,000,000,000,000 in 2018 to 87,600,000,000 in 2020, here there is an increase. And everyone and websites that you consult are going to sell you this motorcycle, that business is going from strength to strength. And yet suddenly car manufacturers have run out of chips…. why?
The trick is that it is not that demand has increased, that it did do so a little in 2020 compared to 2019 (not compared to 2018) because of what I was saying about people locked up at home teleworking, they have needed computers that have been losing sales for years, In fact, as I said before, the supply is going down, fewer processors were manufactured in 2020 than in 2018…. So why are income going up? Well, what is happening is that those who want to buy processors are paying much more for them , with the consequent benefits for manufacturers. In other words, the same number of processors manufactured, or even less and a little demand, adds that the supply cannot satisfy growth and in fact they are not able to produce.more because it is not profitable for them to invest more to build new factories for the few real orders that there will be in the coming months and years. So the solution is to serve the highest bidder first, and the rest to wait a few months or a year to be served. And this is what happened with the cars, the processor manufacturers first served those who could pay more, Apple with its computers that do not stop rising in price and are already around $ 1500 - $ 3000, manufacturers of high-end mobile phones , in whose market it is already normal to pay € 1000 for a phone or for the new latest generation consoles and expensive graphics cards and thus little by little they will be served until they reach companies that pay less such as chips for entertainment systems of cars that suddenly ran out of stock and others that paid less as demand was falling and prices in 2019.
Suddenly the US and Europe have said, but how is it possible that we cannot make cars! As if they cared because their sales do not stop falling and it is the best thing that could happen to them and they also knew what would happen, because they simply cannot make their cars more expensive 300-400 € just for entertainment systems. And suddenly they have said, we are going to put public money to make our own chip factories ... and that the taxpayers pay for them even though the benefits are later for the car companies ... but not even for those. The reality is that except for this small traffic jam due to the slight demand for personal computers and "apple things" due to the increase in teleworking,The 2 companies that can barely manufacture the current amount of last generation processors do not pay at all to expand (although both Samsung and TSMC ask the US for a lot of money in exchange for setting up factories in the US), because they know that sales began to fall in 2018, and except for this small impulse the world has begun a phase of de-digitization that we know where it will stop.why? Because energy is running out, the supply will be smaller and more expensive, these companies, as you can see in the graphs, will charge more and more for the processors that will be accessible to fewer and fewer companies, while reducing their production as it began to happen in 2018 and that as I say is just the beginning of something big, the end of computing.
When I see the obsession of countries to promote 5G, and who if China or the US or Europe is going to manufacture what things, I begin to think that the reason is that seeing that we reach the peak of processors, if we want to save the world industry and that orders and manufacturing do not continue to fall with the consequent closure of the 2 remaining factories, the implementation of 5G is necessary to justify a change in terminals worldwide that allows sales not to fall by not 2% as happened in 2019, if not 10% or 20% at the rate that oil is running out… something that if you think about it is impossible to avoid….
Anyway, and for those who tell me that for a year when sales fall as was 2019, I cannot predict that we have reached the peak I would tell you that this way, in effect, it could not be, but if we reach the peak of mobile sales in 2017, the peak of hard drives in 2010, the peak of computers, the peak of almost everything related to computing in the decade from 2010 to 2020, and also the daily production forecasts of barrels of oil are that they will fall by half sometime in the decade from 2020 to 2030 well ... simply white and in the bottle, we are witnessing the great computer decline, the end of digital memory, prices will rise and there will be fewer and fewer, that simple, in fact we in that phase.. 09/02/2021
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